Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030 Paperback – May 20, 2014

I am the CEO and founder of Heart Transverter (...) and have been very actively involved in the very processes you so eloquently describe in your book. I started as a nuclear physicist but, as my eyes opened a little wider, realized the ultimate non-sustainable and very dangerous aspects inherent to nuclear energy and switched fields and ended up creating the inverter market. By the late seventies I was 100% in line with the conclusions of your book and have worked since to help them unfold as gracefully as possible. Some of the technical concepts I lay out here could be viewed as mere details of your premise but they actually are essential to the core concepts.In order for Solar Energy to be significant, from an ecological point of view, it has to be scalable and in its present form it can't really scale past about 15%. In order to be scalable it has to integrate energy storage and monitor and control all major loads in the home or business. The Transverter technology was designed to do just that. Read The Solarized Grid and watch Heart Transverter: OSIsoft Presentation for High-density Solar Integration on the Distribution Grid.When I created the inverter market by founding companies that are now owned by Schneider we realized transitioning to clean sustainable energy would be a long and complex path and grid tied residential solar did perform a critical step in that it demonstrated some scale and got the prices of solar down. Things really are evolving quickly in the Utility and Distributed Generation spaces. You are, of course, used to the mushrooming opportunity being addressed by many players Beyond Sprawl: A New Vision of the Future. Problem is this is causing enormous problems for the Utility companies and these problems are based on hard science and engineering, not just the utility's fear of losing market share. All you have to do is look into high solar integration areas, like San Diego SDG&E disrupts power to 115,000 to avoid wider blackouts. This is an interaction between CAISO and SDG&E and it is driven by the increasing need for spinning reserves caused by intermittent renewable sources, like solar, and increasing percentages of electronic loads. The Hawaiian solar market is in turmoil from this as is the German market. See Hawaii PUC chair defends landmark decision to end retail rate net metering. The economics of the different areas differ but the science is the same and the problem will only increase with more solar penetration. Private sector PPA's like Solar City & Vivint are used to competition but there is a new type of competitor emerging, the Utility company itself Big utilities enter market for small rooftop solar. The Utility companies understand the science behind these problems and value the solutions and can streamline integrating the benefits of ultra smart solar. The Utility, viewed as a competitor to PPA's, has the potential of having the upper hand as they can influence standards, laws and regulations as you have already seen in Hawaii, California, Nevada Louisiana and even Maine. Maine Utility Wants to End 'Net Metering' Policy. Rules, laws and regulations are always changing. If your effect is creating or magnifying problems then they will probably change against you. This can be seen with net metering being used by some to 100% offset the grid meaning that the grid has no revenue stream even though they still need to provide night time generation and an entire stabilizing grid structure and this drives things like Solar battle is on in the last state you'd expect. If you are solving the problems and, of course, waving your flag, then it is reasonable to expect the rules, laws and regulations to change to your benefit. This is already impacting the large PPA's SolarCity Inevitable Downward Spiral Has Begun and we are actively involved with presenting a solution through the mess that has been created. This rapid solarization has run into a brick wall as is evidenced by Sun Edison's difficulty with trying to acquire Vivint SunEdison's Troubles Are Far From Over and this is all with electric vehicles just starting to become significant. It is becoming clear that TOU (Time Of Use) rates being adjusted often with bi-directional energy flow being encouraged is not only interesting, but probably the only viable solution. This paves the way for EV batteries becoming the dominant energy storage asset for the utility, the home and the microgrid.Time Of Use rates should be implemented everywhere (worldwide) with the rates adjusted at least once a month and everyone should be encouraged to use them in both directions. This is like giving everyone Net Metering coupled with TOU with no limits. This, by itself, could provide absolutely the quickest path to a sustainable solution. TOU rates should even be allowed to go negative if needed. This would provide the needed investment to solve the energy storage issue and would automatically always be a good deal for everyone, the utility company, the truck driver, the home owner, etc. As the technology matures and sustainability approaches, the rates would always adjust to the new environment. For example, high integration solar would dominate the TOU rates (like has already happened in Hawaii) where the lowest rates would be in the middle of the day when people were at work and the highest rates in the early evening. Their EV's in the work place parking lot would be storing the cheap solar energy into their batteries and, in the evening, these EV's would be parked at their home and would make this same stored energy available. TOU rates would make it profitable.

Tony Seba does a great job of proving that solar energy is on the verge of disrupting fossil fuels. The trends are very clear, and expected to continue (and this ignores the potential for unpredictable 'quantum leaps' in value improvement).The Energy component of the book would be even better by going deeper into educating readers on the key value measures of EROI, storage problems (high cost / slow progress in battery tech) and solutions (hydro-electric water pumping to higher elevations), and transmission issues (superconductive cables, and ET3 energy transport/storage). Water and fracking issues are one sided (or poorly researched). This (political??) bias could alienate many readers that would benefit from the otherwise excellent data. For instance over 80% of the water used to frack a well is recovered and used to frack more wells. Also the aquifer exhaustion issues are based on research and extrapolation over a short term ignoring longer term cycles noted in other research. The book fails to point out there is an abundance of fresh water, so water is really a transportation issue - (solvable by technology like ET3) - OR and energy issue (solvable by desal using renewable energy). Another energy omission is the very high value (high benefit/low cost) of hydroelectric energy.The transportation parts aptly points out trends in electric and automated cars, but is ignorant to the much greater value potential of automated PRT technologies like ET3 (Evacuated Tube Transport Technology) that offer 5 to 50 times greater energy efficiency.This review focuses on some of the areas for improvement, and ignores the reason it earned 4 stars -- this is a land mark book aptly showing how our global standard of living is going to improve - and it is going to happen even faster than Tony's book predicts!

My favorite book on renewable energy by a substantial margin. Tony puts a lot of faith in the market, but he meticulously explains why solar and wind are more competitive than fossil fuels. His explanation does not rely on valuing externalities, something that should be done but is unlikely to happen soon enough to make a difference. He relies solely on sober if optimistic projections about the price and quality improvements we can expect in solar energy, EVs, and autonomous vehicles. Having lived through the disruption of the mainframe market as a professional who advocated open systems and smaller computers to my customers and employers, I think chances are good that his projections for the triumph of solar and EVs will be largely realized. Modularity is the key behind his projections for solar. It works for autonomous vehicles also. This is one book about the future that doesn't shove climate change under a rug but gives a real ray of hope. Be sure to watch the Tony Seba videos on Youtube and Tony's website. One topic that he doesn't deal with is the intermittency of solar and wind. For clear discussions of that topic see Mark Jacobson and Amory Lovins. It is an issue but certainly one that can be overcome. Finally, the tables and charts are almost unreadable. I haven't checked Tony's website yet to see if they are available there. And, the book is full of editing errors -- and that is an opportunity for group resolution if we could find a mechanism to do it.

This is a great book about the future of solar and EV's. I wish I had bought it when it was first published. It is still relevant today.